WHERE THE GOP RACE STANDS – AT 10:02 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen is out with a fascinating poll this morning that, I think, shows where things are going to go in the race for the Republican nomination for president.

The inclusion of likely candidate Rick Perry has tightened the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination dramatically, with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney still ahead – but just barely.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Romney earning 22% support, closely followed by Perry, the Texas governor who is expected to enter the race soon, with 18% of the vote. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is in third place with 16%...

...Thirty-nine percent (39%) of likely GOP Primary voters say they are members of the Tea Party. Forty-three percent (43%) say they are not members, but another 17% are not sure.

Perry leads among Tea Party members with 28% support. Bachmann runs second in this group with 22% of the vote, with Romney at 16% closely followed by Cain’s 13%. Among primary voters who are not Tea Party members, Romney captures 29% of the vote. Perry (13%), Bachmann (11%) and Paul (10%) follow at a distance.

Here we see that GOP split again.  But I think non-Tea Partiers will begin to defect to Perry, who is the best campaigner in the bunch.  Unless Romney, who is Mr. Establishment, can light a fire, he may soon be the former frontrunner.

Again, Michele Bachmann continues to impress with her strong showing.  However, I don't think she'll get the nomination, in part because of the narrowness of her base.  And I don't think a presidential candidate will want her as his vice presidential choice, since she isn't exactly known as a team player.  Her role may be in the future.

August 1, 2011